Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.070295 0.079062 0.088106 0.098104 0.108819 0.119929 0.132292
2025-02-23 0.058934 0.072274 0.086780 0.103590 0.122406 0.142692 0.166095
2025-03-02 0.050438 0.066804 0.085428 0.107868 0.133861 0.162731 0.196928
2025-03-09 0.040673 0.058269 0.079219 0.105413 0.136724 0.172428 0.215697
2025-03-16 0.032693 0.050690 0.073088 0.102086 0.137753 0.179381 0.230834
2025-03-23 0.029314 0.048419 0.073034 0.105750 0.146841 0.195603 0.256710
2025-03-30 0.026014 0.045784 0.072136 0.108046 0.154034 0.209440 0.279741
2025-04-06 0.023794 0.044338 0.072557 0.111844 0.162982 0.225370 0.305333
2025-04-13 0.020559 0.041012 0.070108 0.111611 0.166623 0.234662 0.322827
2025-04-20 0.019925 0.041515 0.072909 0.118362 0.179270 0.255214 0.354254
2025-04-27 0.016896 0.037894 0.069560 0.116522 0.180551 0.261410 0.367916
2025-05-04 0.015532 0.036814 0.069778 0.119510 0.188146 0.275590 0.391561
2025-05-11 0.013198 0.033930 0.067299 0.118868 0.191236 0.284544 0.409432
2025-05-18 0.012547 0.033989 0.069343 0.124792 0.203391 0.305459 0.442813
2025-05-25 0.011692 0.033554 0.070561 0.129516 0.213972 0.324461 0.473981
2025-06-01 0.009515 0.030209 0.066834 0.126710 0.213970 0.329490 0.487216
2025-06-08 0.007509 0.026791 0.062655 0.122941 0.212393 0.332279 0.497461
2025-06-15 0.006962 0.026452 0.063652 0.127073 0.222023 0.350047 0.527230
2025-06-22 0.006252 0.025607 0.063687 0.129661 0.229436 0.364881 0.553262
2025-06-29 0.005831 0.025386 0.064796 0.133937 0.239318 0.383113 0.583861
2025-07-06 0.004911 0.023711 0.063123 0.133674 0.242538 0.392295 0.602594
2025-07-13 0.004950 0.024607 0.066272 0.141265 0.257365 0.417424 0.642539
2025-07-20 0.003990 0.022500 0.063578 0.139198 0.257857 0.422881 0.656439